Monthly Report Oct/2026: Inflation could ease towards the 4.5% target from November

We forecast CPI at 3.9% YoY in November and a 2026 average of 4.45%, below the 4.5% target, after E10 RON95-III petrol prices fell VND 5,130/litre in early November. Major banks cut posted deposit rates by c.50bp under Letter 9608, while three-month interbank rates rose to 7.56% and one-year CD yields held at 8.28%. A record USD 7.31 bn trade surplus supports USD/VND ahead of a possible December Fed hike.