Market Update Oct/2026: Elevated term funding costs could push VN-Index towards 1,600–1,650

We see a further 5-8% decline in VN-Index to 1,600–1,650 in November 2026. One-year CD yields at 8.28% and three-month interbank rates at 7.56% have yet to respond to Official Letter 9608, while we forecast earnings growth outside Vingroup to slow from 22.8% YoY in Q3 to 4.5% in Q4. Our view would improve if lower posted deposit rates began to feed through to CD yields.