Sector Report: Q3/2026 earnings growth remains strong but increasingly concentrated

Earnings growth moderates as one-off gains inflate trailing multiples

VIC, VHM, BSR, MSR and GAS generated around 68% of market-wide incremental profit in Q3/2026. Ex-Vingroup growth fell from 35.2% YoY in Q2 to 22.8% in Q3, while the share of companies reporting profit growth declined from 61.2% to 54.7%. Banks and steel continued to benefit from credit expansion and HPG’s new HRC capacity; aggregate growth remained dominated by major project deliveries and favourable commodity pricing.

We forecast market-wide NPAT-MI growth of 8.6% YoY but a roughly 7% QoQ decline in Q4/2026. Banks, HPG and major retailers should continue to grow on lending, HRC volumes and chain-store sales. Lower gasoline cracks and broadly flat metals prices should reduce refining and mining profit relative to Q3. GVR’s exceptional land compensation is not assumed to recur, while PNJ is expected to book a VND 7,071 bn diamond buyback provision.Ex-Vingroup trailing P/E is 9.1x, matching its November 2022 low, partly because trailing earnings have been lifted by BSR’s refining cracks, elevated metals prices at MSR and GVR’s land compensation. With gasoline cracks sharply lower since October, metals prices stabilising and exceptional items unlikely to recur, commodity-sector profits are set to retreat in Q4. Today’s trailing multiple therefore overstates the cheapness of earnings that can be sustained beyond Q3.